The country’s economic core Luzon grid will be in need of additional 10, 450 megawatts for its long-term power supply, the Department of Energy has forecasted.
In the information drive for the updated Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) which kicked off in Batangas on Thursday, the department has presented to energy stakeholders that electricity demand will be growing at 4.47-percent on average annually.
“Luzon grid needs a total additional capacity of 10,450 MW onwards to 2030,” the department has noted. Its planning horizon stretches over 20 years – starting 2011 and will culminate in 2030.
Depending on technology applications that project developers will eventually embrace, the scale of power investments being solicited for the grid could reach $15.7 billion to $31.35 billion (a range of P650.5 billion to P1.3 trillion). The rule-of-thumb cost for power project developments could be from $1.5 million to $3.0 million per megawatt depending on the technology.
Off-the-shelf oil fired plants could have a cheaper capital cost of roughly $1.0 per megawatt or even less, but this is not necessarily the preferred option given the country’s leaning on cleaner alternatives.
The capacity additions from 2015 to 2018, according to the DOE projections, would be for a total of 1,500 megawatts. For years 2015 to 2017, the required capacity beefing up will be at 300 MW annually. The bigger addition is anticipated in 2018 at 600 MW.
The only capacity increases for Luzon grid by 2013 will be provided by the commercial commissioning of the 600-megawatt Mariveles coal plant of GNPower and that of the 20-MW Maibarara geothermal project.
From an available capacity of 10,788 prior to the entry of the two plants, the grid is seen stabilizing with a dependable supply of 11,462 MW by 2014. That is being referenced on peak demand forecast of 8,618 MW for the period and with reserve allocation of 1,639 MW.
From year 2020, the DOE has calculated heftier increases in power demand, thus, capacity shoring up is expected at bigger increments.
The additional megawatts to be constructed will be: 1,000 MW in 2020; 500 MW in 2021; 500 MW in 2022; 1,000 MW in 2023; 500 MW in 2024; 500 MW in 2025; 1,000 MW in 2026; 800 MW in 2027; 1,000 MW in 2028; 1,000 MW in 2029; and 1,150 MW in 2030.
The draft PEP has manifested that there are still no projects classified as “committed capacities” from 2014 to 2030.
These despite the fact that several projects have already been cast in the development blueprints of various companies – including the proposed Subic coal plant as well as the expansion of the Calaca and Pagbilao coal-fired facilities and other greenfield projects.
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Source: Myrna M. Velasco, Manila Bulletin. (11 October 2012)
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