THE ECONOMY appears set for a second-half spurt with an index tracking 11 indicators continuing an upward trend, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) yesterday reported.
The fourth-quarter composite leading economic indicator (LEI) — the government’s key tool for short-term forecasting — improved to 0.168 from the revised 0.116 for the third quarter, data from the NSCB showed.
“For two consecutive quarters, the LEI has been rebounding positively, which gives us the confidence that we’ll see an uptick in our economic growth for the third and fourth quarters,” NSCB Secretary-General Romulo A. Virola said in a telephone interview.
“The LEI has so far been a sound indicator and we are expecting that growth in the last two quarters will be higher than the 3.4% growth experienced in the second quarter,” he added.
Economic managers last month cut this year’s gross domestic product (GDP) goal to 5-6% from 7-8% and said the actual expansion could hit 4.5-5.5%. The government previously also unveiled a P72.11-billion stimulus plan following the first semester’s meager 4% growth.
Of the 11 indicators monitored for the LEI, seven went up: new businesses, visitor arrivals, consumer price index, hotel occupancy rate, foreign exchange rate, stock price index, and electric energy consumption.
Total merchandise imports, the wholesale price index, terms of trade index, and money supply went negative.
“From the third quarter to the fourth quarter LEI, there were three shifts in the direction of contribution: number of new businesses and visitor arrivals, from negative to positive, and wholesale price index, from positive to negative,” the NSCB said in a statement.
Cid L. Terosa, senior economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said the latest data boded well for GDP for the remainder of the year.
“The latest LEI shows encouraging signs of economic growth in the coming months. It also indicates that we can expect brisk economic activity fueled by spending,” he said.
“The fourth quarter always brings with it an optimism connected to greater consumption spending and [overseas] remittances,” Mr. Terosa added.
“I expect full year growth to be around 4.8% to 5.3%.”
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By: Judy Dannibelle T. Chua Co
Source: Business World, Nov. 9, 2011
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