The country’s merchandise exports are expected to have grown further last March in the wake of the 10-month-high increase recorded the preceding month, two banks said in separate research notes.
Singapore-based DBS Bank, Ltd. sees a 9.1% annual increase, while UK-based Barclays estimates an even faster 17% increment when the National Statistics Office (NSO) reports merchandise export data for March this Thursday.
Both noted recovering global demand, particularly for electronics, which typically make up over half of the Philippines’ outward shipments.
NSO reported last April 12 that merchandise exports grew by a 10-month-high 14.6% to $4.43 billion in February.
In its Daily Breakfast Spread, dated May 7, DBS said it expects outward shipments to have increased by a slower 9.1% in March, though electronics are expected to have picked up by 16.1% compared to February’s 15.8% annual expansion to $2.33 billion.
“Electronics exports had a V-shaped recovery in the first two months of the year, snapping 11 consecutive months of negative year-on-year growth,” DBS noted.
“In absolute terms, value of electronics exports has recovered to levels not seen since November 2010.”
DBS also noted that North America’s semiconductor book-to-bill ratio hit a 19-month high of 1.13 in March, from 1.01 in February and 0.96 in January.
Such ratio shows worldwide orders and actual billings for North America-based semiconductor product manufacturers.
A ratio above 1.0 means such firms have more orders than they can deliver.
“This bodes well for exports in the coming few months and the robust export numbers should translate into a sharp acceleration in GDP (gross domestic product) growth for [the first quarter],” DBS said, adding “there are upside risks to our 4.2% growth forecast for the year.”
The government is expected to report the country’s first-quarter GDP data this month.
In its The Emerging Markets Weekly, dated May 3, Barclays estimated merchandise exports to have grown by an even faster 17% in March, also “on the stronger external demand environment as reflected in US ISM (Institute for Supply Management) new orders and semiconductor book-to-bill ratio.”
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By: KAM
Source: BusinessWorld, May 8, 2012
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