Investments seen at stake with peace deal at risk

PRESIDENT Benigno S. C. Aquino III yesterday sought to rally support for an already fragile peace process imperilled by last Sunday’s clash between government troops and Moro rebels, as business leaders flagged possible investment fallout from the incident’s aftermath.

In his televised address to the nation on what analysts say could be his “biggest test” yet, Mr. Aquino gave an account of events that led to the death of 44 police commandos in a botched effort to arrest wanted terrorists and involved nearly 400 cops. “Like so many others, I have many questions surrounding the incident, and I expect the board of inquiry to uncover the truth behind this incident,” he said.

He then laid some of the blame squarely on the commander of the elite police unit concerned, the Special Action Force (SAF), who has since been relieved.

“To my repeated reminders about the necessity of coordination, the director of the SAF answered, ‘Yes Sir’,” Mr. Aquino recalled.

“I wonder: how and why could it have happened that the notification of the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) battalions close to the operation only came close to the time of jump-off, or even after our forces had already jumped off?” he added.

“If my order to ensure sufficient coordination had been complied with, then perhaps it was pushed to the limit, resulting in very minimum compliance.”

The ill-fated police units were out to arrest Malaysian Jemaah Islamiyah central committee member Zulkifli bin Hir, also known as Marwan, and Filipino national Abdul Basit Usman.

While he repeatedly parried questions on whether he gave the green light for the fateful mission, Mr. Aquino insisted it formed part of efforts beginning May last year to capture the suspects who carried a bounty totaling some $6 million and had taken refuge in an area in Maguindanao riddled with camps of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), with which the government signed a framework peace agreement in 2012, and the more belligerent Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.

He was taken to task, however, by an unexpected critic. Former president Fidel V. Ramos, who formed the SAF in 1993, said in a press conference yesterday that the tragedy was not just a result of lack of coordination between government and MILF forces but also of “poor strategic direction from the commander in chief.”

“They don’t ask for my clearance for every mission since it would be impractical,” Mr. Aquino insisted.

“When the police discovered Marwan’s location, they acted immediately. Not doing so would likely allow Marwan and Usman to escape.”

But Marwan did escape, claimed a spokesman of the original Muslim rebel group, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). “He still lives. Some of our people have been able to talk to him days after the encounter,” MNLF spokesman Emmanuel Fontanilla said by phone, adding that the terrorist was sighted in Lanao province.

In a statement e-mailed to journalists yesterday, MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim said the rebel group has formed a “Special lnvestigative Commission… to investigate the events at Mamasapano, Maguindanao that resulted in the death of members of the MILF and of soldiers of the Philippine Government,” and reiterated his group’s “full commitment to the peace process with the Philippine Government.”

Mr. Aquino told reporters afterwards that the government expects MILF forces to “step aside” as troops pursue the suspects and “will expect much more cooperation from them (MILF) when we file the appropriate charges.”

MILF Vice-Chairman Ghazali Jaafar said by phone that the incident will be tackled when the peace panels meet in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow to sign the protocol for rebel disarmament.

In the face of mounting public outcry over the incident, some lawmakers said they would withdraw support from the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law that provides the legal framework for a new, expanded autonomous region in Mindanao.

“There are even some already calling for a halt to the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) in the House of Representatives and the Senate,” Mr. Aquino noted in his address. “This should not happen. The success of the entire peace process is contingent on this law.”

Leaders of both chambers, however, said they remained committed to its approval.

Asked on support in his chamber, House Speaker Feliciano R. Belmonte, Jr. told reporters: “It’s very difficult to say, but one thing is for sure: support for it has been somewhat eroded by this incident.”

“It is very hard to make time tables, but so far we are sticking to the time table.”

Senate President Franklin M. Drilon said in a statement yesterday that his chamber “will strive to pass this… bill, because it is important that we stabilize the situation in Mindanao,” citing March as the deadline in a radio interview.

INVESTMENT FALLOUT
Sought for their views, local and foreign business leaders warned of a possible hit on potential investments if the government fails to resolve the situation.

“[I]nvestors all over the world want peace where they put their investments. Who will invest in a country na magulo (that is chaotic)?” Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Alfredo M. Yao said in a phone interview after Mr. Aquino’s address.

“It will certainly jeopardize investment in the region (Mindanao),” he added.

“One criteria to get investments especially from outside the country is to ensure peace and security. What happened there in Maguindanao will definitely affect investor interest.”

Other business leaders weighed in before Mr. Aquino’s address.

“Clearly, it will give investors a pause. The fragility of peace in Mindanao has been brought into question by this atrocious act and until answers are given as to what really happened — and there is complete confidence that what happened will not be repeated — investments will inevitably slow,” Peter L. Wallace, who heads The Wallace Business Forum, said in a text message.

John D. Forbes, senior adviser of the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, said via text: “[T]he long-term objective is to bring peace and development to the poorest region of the country so that fighting will be avoided.”

“Until such time that fighting ends, there will be no development. A board of inquiry will issue its report and recommendations; in the meantime, Congress should continue to approve the BBL.”

Makati Business Club Executive Director Peter Angelo V. Perfecto said in a separate text that it is “essential that government and MILF do not allow the extremely unfortunate incident to derail the Bangsamoro peace train.”

“They must continue with the peace initiative.”

Ma. Lourdes N. Tiquia, secretary general of the Association of Political Consultants in Asia, and Ramon C. Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, both described the crisis as Mr. Aquino’s “biggest test… since it (peace in Mindanao) comes as his legacy.”

“The President cannot just sweep it under the rug and go back to business as usual,” Ms. Tiquia said. — with A. M. Monzon and M. L. T. Lopez

Source: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=TopStory&title=investments-seen-brat-stake-with-peace-deal-brat-risk&id=101748