Manila’s population could expand to 29.3M by 2030 due to urban migration–EIU report
OVER 6 million more Filipinos are expected to flock to Manila in 10 years, according to a report released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
In the report “Association of Southeast Asian Nation [Asean] Cities: Stirring the Melting Pot,” the EIU said the population of Manila could balloon to 29.3 million by 2030, from an estimate of 23.2 million in 2015.
Manila, as defined by the EIU, corresponds to the Greater Manila Area. It consists of Metro Manila, or the National Capital Region, and urbanized areas and neighboring provinces.
“The good news for Asean is that many of its cities can still learn from the mistakes of the once-great metropolises in the developed world, on top of learning from each other’s experiences,” the EIU report read.
EIU estimates showed that around 68 percent of the population of Manila by 2030 will be composed of 15- to 64-year-old Filipinos.
The share of this age group to the total population has been increasing from 66.5 percent in 2005 to 67.6 percent in 2015.
“Driving this growth are persistently high rural- to-urban-migration flows, despite declining fertility rates. Cities where favorable demographics boost the labor force will have an advantage in terms of sustaining higher levels of economic and consumer-spending growth,” EIU said.
With more Filipinos living and working in Manila, the EIU projects that the median household income in the megacity will reach $30,200.
This is more than double the estimated median household income in 2015 of $11,900 and in 2005 at $6,200.
The EIU also estimated that by 2030, the number of households earning over $10,000 annually will increase to 7.6 percent.
This is almost double the 4 million households earning $10,000 a year in 2015. In 2005 there were only 500,000 households earning $10,000 in Manila.
“[We] project the number of middle-class households in Asean to more than quadruple, rising from more than 38 million in 2015 to 161 million in the next 15 years,” the EIU said.
With the growth of the population and rising incomes, cities like Manila are also faced with challenges, such as pollution and heavy flooding.
Based on the EIU, Manila is second only to Bandung in Indonesia as the most polluted city in the Asean.
In terms of flooding, it is also one of the urban areas in the region that are susceptible to floods due to typhoons and heavy rainfall.
The Philippines, in general, the EIU said, is particularly vulnerable to flooding. This makes flooding a serious issue, particularly in raising productivity.
“Flood events in recent years have been especially damaging for Manila’s urban infrastructure, and have revealed deep gaps in the government’s capability to handle such severe weather conditions,” the report read.
“Given that Manila contributes a large proportion of national GDP, regular flooding events in the Metropolitan Manila region tend to have a negative impact on the economy as a whole,” it added.
In 2013 the EIU said Supertyphoon Yolanda (international code name Haiyan) cost the economy some $12 billion to 15 billion, which is roughly equivalent to 5 percent of the country’s GDP at the time.
While Manila was not directly hit by the typhoons, the EIU said the flooding experienced in Manila increased commodity prices and decreased the spending capacity of residents.
Since then, the government has undertaken flood-management projects, the most notable of which was the P23.5-billion Metro Manila Flood Management Project, Phase I of the Department of Public Works and Highways and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority.
The project includes the rehabilitation of 36 pumping stations in Manila, Pasay, Taguig, Makati and Malabon through the replacement of pumps and the construction of 20 new pumping stations in Manila, Pasay, Pasig, Mandaluyong, San Juan, Caloocan, Valenzuela and Quezon City.
It will also minimize solid waste in waterways to reduce flood risks. The project involves participatory housing and resettlement, project management, support and coordination.
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