IT was sadly typical for the Philippines. When it played host at the beginning of May to the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank, the biggest single news story the event generated overseas was a negative one: that hoardings had been erected so delegates would not see some unpleasant slums. Sadly, too, the story itself is rather typical: giving things a sleek appearance sometimes seems to matter more than fixing sordid reality.
The Philippines has, that incident notwithstanding, enjoyed an image boost in recent months. Under Benigno Aquino, a president avowedly intent on tackling corruption, economic prospects look good. It is one of few countries in Asia expected to grow faster this year than last—though partly because a slump in government spending dragged the growth rate down in 2011. The stockmarket has been one of the world’s rare performers this year. Attention is now focused on the country’s many assets: a young population; mineral wealth; robust external finances; even the strength of its sometimes ridiculed democracy, restored in 1986. A much-cited projection by a bank, HSBC, of the world in 2050 highlights “the striking rise of the Philippines, which is set to become the world’s 16th-largest economy, up 27 places.”
The Philippine economy grew at an annual average rate of roughly 2% in the 1980s and 3% in the 1990s. It has achieved about 4.5% since the turn of the century. Future prospects are indeed enticing: besides the unexploited mineral resources, business-process outsourcing is booming, already employing some 600,000 people. Remittances from all those Filipinos overseas have remained strong through economic crises. As costs rise in China, the Philippines is among places manufacturers eye as an alternative. Tourism has huge potential, recognised by the government’s nicely pitched campaign: “It’s more fun in the Philippines.”
It is also more fun with a newish president. Some of the present feel-good mood stems from what people call a “halo effect”. The unlikely saint is Mr Aquino, known as Noynoy, or P-Noy (in a country fond of nicknames, the national one is “Pinoy”). He was swept to power in 2010, partly on a wave of affection for his late mother, Corazon Aquino, the first president after the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. An undistinguished record as a senator did little to build hopes of a bold presidency.
Yet Mr Aquino remains broadly popular. His government’s stand against perceived Chinese bullying in the South China Sea seems to go down well with a public mostly insouciant of the risks involved. A 52-year-old bachelor, Mr Aquino’s love life fits the national penchant for turning politics into soap opera. But above all, he is liked as a welcome change after the nine-year presidency of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, which in its final years was widely seen as corrupt. He has gained kudos for trying to bring her to account. The focus of that struggle at the moment is the attempt in the Senate to convict the chief justice, Renato Corona, who was among Mrs Arroyo’s appointments to the Supreme Court, and has been accused of trying to shield her.
The Senate trial, televised daily, has become crucial to the administration, both as a means of breaking the perceived hold of its predecessor over the judiciary, and as proof of its zeal in combating corruption. This has also entailed submitting a number of allegedly suspicious contracts awarded by Mrs Arroyo’s government to fresh tenders. Clean-ups in the tax and customs authorities have impressed some businessmen, while vexing others who say procedures are now gummed up.
The government has also started making some important reforms. In an effort to raise its revenues—at present a paltry 12% of GDP—it wants to jack up “sin” taxes on alcohol and tobacco. The bill enacting this made important progress in May when it passed a House of Representatives committee—a triumph over powerful tobacco and alcohol lobbies. It still has to pass the full House and the Senate, however.
In fact, the Aquino administration has little concrete to show for its two years in power. The centrepiece of its programme, public-private partnerships to tackle the inadequate infrastructure which is such a hindrance to all the nation’s economic hopes, is only now stuttering to life after just one of the ten projects scheduled for approval last year saw contracts awarded. The pursuit of Mrs Arroyo and the chief justice is a distraction as well as a mission. Securing Mr Corona’s conviction might entail so many promises to senators that the point of the exercise—enhancing the government’s clean image—is lost. Failure to do so however, would leave the administration looking weak and silly.
So Mr Aquino has his critics. Mr Corona, for example, who this week was in intensive care after a possible heart attack, portrays himself as the victim of a vendetta after a court ruling that land belonging to the Aquino clan should be redistributed. Mr Aquino’s supporters scoff at this, and praise the president’s scrupulous hands-off approach. But that too has a flip side. Some on the left have promoted a craze for “Noynoying”, a form of protest involving striking a languid, idle pose. A common view has Mr Aquino as a reluctant president, who, just as his mother is said to have done, crosses off on a calendar the days until his term ends.
Cometh the Manny?
They are going by fast. Philippine presidents, barred from serving consecutive six-year terms, do not have long to make their mark. The backward-looking settling of accounts with Mrs Arroyo does not help. Already there is speculation about the 2016 presidential election. Pundits feel better placed in naming one of the front-runners for 2022, who, being under 40, will be constitutionally barred in 2016: a world-champion boxer and congressman, Manny Pacquiao. If Mr Aquino’s presidency is to be remembered as more than an interlude under a decent, likeable man who did his best, he needs to give some dynamic leadership to the reforms the Philippines so badly needs. Noynoying just does not cut it.
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Source: The Economist, May 26, 2012
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