Under President Duterte, progress has been one step forward and two steps backward. One example is the rebalancing of foreign policy and economic diplomacy away from the United States toward China. Rebalancing is certainly a step forward, because under former President Aquino, foreign policy tilted one-sidedly in favor of the US, which can’t really be counted on in any confrontation against China. It might even be said that the rebalancing was prescient because under Trump, the US will become more self-absorbed, nationalist, and isolationist.

Political economy also explains the rebalancing. The banana and pineapple plantation owners around Davao suffered when the Chinese shut down its market due to Aquino’s anti-Chinese policy. Many of them, including Antonio “Tony Boy” Floirendo, Jr., listed as the single biggest financial backer of Duterte during his campaign, supported Duterte. On the other hand, the Chinese-Filipino community, which has extensive interests on investments and trade with China, chaffed under the previous administration’s foreign policy.

However, the two steps backward are Duterte’s unnecessary anti-US and anti-EU rhetoric. Not only did this incur heavy diplomatic and foreign policy costs, it also imposed economic costs, especially in the BPO sector, which caters mainly to the US market. The Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation, Inc. (SEIPI) has also said that it lost millions in potential revenue when customers got frightened by Duterte’s anti-US diatribes.

His anti-Americanism doesn’t go well with the BPO industry, whose main market is the US, and its million workers.

The BPO Sector is not inconsequential. It has overtaken OFW remittances as the biggest earner of foreign exchange. It employs more than a million educated Filipinos. A number of industries, from fast food and realty to retail, are dependent on the health of the BPO sector. From a politico-economic standpoint, the BPO sector carries a bigger punch than the banana industries and the Chinese-Filipino business interests.

Another example of the one step forward and two steps back progress under President Duterte is his aim to unify the country and to strengthen the state. He initiated peace talks with the Communist Left, the MILF, and even the MNLF. He named leftists to this Cabinet.

However, he has effectively undermined his program of national reconciliation, peace, and unity by allowing the covert burial of former President Marcos at Libingan ng mga Bayani. In my view, this was a major strategic error, perhaps born out of his sense of hubris (former President Erap Estrada had the same sense of hubris, which proved fatal to his presidency) and political arrogance.

There was no reason to hurry the burial, even assuming he had some political debts to pay to the Marcoses. He could have allowed it later in his term when he had more solid achievements tucked under his belt and had more political capital.

But, no, he thought he could take on the anti-Marcos forces. He didn’t realize the country isn’t Davao, where he could just say “Boo” and people will scram out of the city.

Now, Humpty Dumpty has been broken. The toothpaste is out of the tube. It’s not just the Yellow forces, whom his followers deride as “yellowtards,” that are rising up in opposition and finding their voice. The legal Left, the student youth, the traditional media, Big Business (the MBC came out with a statement), the Church and a broad array of anti-Marcos forces are stirring. More worrisome for President Duterte is that the student youth, apathetic for decades, are in the forefront of the anti-Marcos protests and countering online the propaganda of his troll army.

Duterte can’t dismiss these protests.

The same broad coalition that brought down former President Erap Estrada in Edsa 2 is beginning to coalesce and rise in opposition. He’s increasingly becoming politically isolated. The pro-American right, from business to the military, would like nothing more than see him go, while his relationship with the Left is shaky on the back of the administration’s anti-human rights policy and decision to bury Marcos covertly at the LNB.

For sure, with a much narrower coalition and with political conflicts and tension on the rise, President Duterte will have a more difficult time governing and delivering on his promises. His well-conceived fiscal reforms, which include painful tax increases on fuel and cars, may be at risk.

President Duterte seems to lack the political skills to navigate an increasingly difficult and complex terrain. Compare him to former President Gloria Arroyo, who knew how to manipulate the levers of power to survive numerous attempts to dislodge her, from the failed coups to the Hyatt 10 resignation. She cleverly split Big Business (the Aboitizes and the Razons were in her corner), corrupted Church officials, bought off Congress, and appointed ex-generals to juicy positions in the Cabinet and bureaucracy.

Alas, President Duterte knows only of a steamroller approach. He can’t even connect the dots.

For example, if I were President Duterte, I would immediately liberalize rice importation, which would lower rice prices by at least 10%. Not only would this be a beneficial economic reform that can immediately be felt by the masses, it could take the air out of the surging anti-Marcos protests. However, he has chosen to listen to Agriculture Secretary Manny Piñol pleading for another two-year extension of this rent-seeking system (which will set the stage for another extension down the line).

His administration’s blunt anti-mining stance, two-year moratorium on land conversions, and end “endo policy are all creating few friends but many powerful enemies, even among the SME sector. (These policies are also bad for inclusive economic growth). Moreover, his bullying approach to force the mass resignation of ERC Commissioners can only foster regulatory uncertainty and alarm the big guns of the power industry.

In addition, his lack of political skills is compounded by a lack of substantial achievement on his signature agenda: the drug war. To date, no police general or major political figure has been indicted, much more jailed for drug dealing. He was quick to defend the police killers of the late Mayor Espinosa although the public hearings later showed their connection to the drug trade.

What passes for accomplishment are the extrajudicial killings of lowly drug addicts and dealers and the public humiliation of Senator Leila de Lima.

Nearly six months into his term, instead of better peace and order, what we are seeing are rising political turbulence and incidents of bombings and ambushes. Enemies of the state will surely take advantage of the split in the political ruling class over President Duterte’s plans to rehabilitate and restore the Marcoses to power. Threats of Martial Law and suspension of the writ of habeas corpus are admissions of lack of peace and order.

President Duterte also seems not to pay attention to the details of governance.

For example, his administration’s own Emergency Powers bill, which is supposed to deal with road and airport congestion, is facing a rough sailing in Congress and the Senate, when both Houses are supposed to be dominated by his own party. His own political ally, Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, is at war with his Secretary of Transportation, Art Tugade. The result could be a political blowback from an exasperated citizenry fed up with all talk and little action on transport and traffic problems.

After five months, the flaws are showing: The inattention to the nitty-grittys of governance, the reckless willingness to antagonize powerful political forces for flimsy reasons, the naïve assumption of a competent and efficient national bureaucracy willing and able to do his bidding, the tunnel vision and inability to connect the dots, the lack of political skills and understanding of the political dynamics of the country, not just a city — all of these don’t forebode well of more steps forward without giant steps backward.

Source: www.bworldonline.com