The Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIRe), also referred to as Industry 4.0, is creeping into the workplace almost unnoticed. Unbeknownst to many Filipinos, some countries are now adapting to FIRe, and changing their processes to pave the way for the use of massive automation, big data analytics and the Internet of Things. They are also training their workforce to cope with the changing workplace. These countries are now “Catching FIRe”, in a positive way. The countries that ignore the handwriting on the wall about the FIRe will get burned.
Covid-19 and jobs
Preparation for FIRe seemed to have been sidelined by poorer economies, as Covid-19 took center stage. Some countries were so overwhelmed by the Covid-19 pandemic that they might have never seen FIRe as an emerging constraint.
After the longest and harshest Covid-19 lockdown, many Filipinos have realized that work is no longer what it used to be. Work used to be a place you commute to everyday, where you punch your timecard before and after your work schedule, and where you join hundreds or thousands of other employees to produce products or services for specific customers. These days, work is what you do wherever you are, for whoever wants your product or service.
Many people think that Covid-19 redefined the concept of work. In reality, it did not. Before the pandemic, many of the changes that we see today in the Philippines were already being done in other countries. As early as five years ago, Americans and Europeans would call a phone number and give the attendant a list of things they want to buy from a grocery store or restaurant and get their groceries or food without having to go out.
The Covid-19 pandemic is not a change driver. Technology has driven the major changes in business models and business processes today. The two other major change drivers are 1) the deluge of information that influence government and business leaders in making decisions, and 2) the people themselves — customers who demand more, employees who are more empowered, and citizens who can no longer tolerate the slow undoing of their rights as stakeholders in governance and business.
The Covid-19 pandemic is a change accelerator — not a change driver. Pre-Covid, countries already encouraged employees to work from home. Covid-19 practically made work from home (WFH) the default position. Online meetings, webinars, and even online learning in schools and training institutions replaced face-to-face meetings. But the most debilitating effect of the pandemic is the massive closure of hundreds of thousands of Filipino establishments, especially among the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). As a consequence, millions of Filipinos have lost their jobs.
Filipinos wish that the situation would normalize, so that they can get back their jobs. But experts are saying that because of FIRe, some jobs will never be the same.
Post-Covid jobs
The Financial Times reported, “Industry executives say that the process of technological change is accelerating as a result of the coronavirus. The new innovations include … chatbots, some of which use the same voice recognition technology behind Amazon’s Alexa, and software that can replace repetitive tasks done by humans.”
A study of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revealed that “32 of its member countries noted that the rise of automation and other forms of very advanced technology puts at risk an alarming number of jobs and industries (Nedelkoska & Quintini, 2018). It found that 14 percent of all jobs among OECD countries, equivalent to 66 million workers across 32 countries, have high chances of being automated (at 70% chance of automation). Meanwhile, an additional 32 percent of jobs have a 50- to 70-percent chance of automation, meaning that a significant amount of the tasks involved in those jobs could be automated.”
Considering the massive impact of Covid-19 on businesses and jobs, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released a recent 2020 Future of Jobs report. Here are some of the findings:
- Before the pandemic, it was opined that the FIRe would render some jobs obsolete, and new jobs will be created. As a consequence of Covid-19, creation of new jobs will not come automatically as a matter of course.
- “For those workers set to remain in their roles, the share of core skills that will change in the next five years is 40%, and 50% of all employees will need reskilling.”
- The pandemic accelerated the digital transformation of many organizations. The Future of Work for white collar jobs have started, as firms adopted remote working or WFH.
- “Roughly 66% of employers surveyed expect to get a return on investment in upskilling and reskilling within one year.” Only 21% of companies surveyed get government support.
Upskilling and reskilling
To adapt to changes brought about by FIRe, “upskilling and reskilling” of the workforce is highly recommended. Upskilling will help workers cope with changing demands of their current roles. Reskilling will prepare them to qualify for other or newer jobs.
According to a 2018 McKinsey study, these job categories will experience a radical shift in skills needs: 1) physical and manual (motor skill-based jobs); 2) basic cognitive (requiring numeracy and literacy); 3) higher cognitive (advanced literacy, decision making, complex information processing, and creativity); 4) social and emotional skills (entrepreneurial, extensive interpersonal and communication skills, and teaching); and 5) technological skills (science-based and higher-level IT skills). McKinsey recognizes the need for physical and manual skills in the future but suggested that workers in this category must have a certain level of digital skills.
In the December 1-3, 2020 Arangkada forum of the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines (JFC), Kaushik Das, senior partner and managing partner of Southeast Asia McKinsey & Co., estimated that 19.3 million Filipino employees will likely be displaced in the next few years due to the effects of automation, artificial intelligence and robotics, unless government seriously implements “reskilling and upskilling for new technologies.”
Hard and soft skills
Hard skills are capabilities required to perform jobs in one’s area of specialization. They are often referred to as technical or technological skills. These skills are vulnerable to technological changes.
Soft skills are as important as hard skills. These skills are more “general” and needed across a wide array of job categories. Soft skills are also referred to as “transversal” skills, or skills that can be improved through lifelong learning.
In the 1980s, several gurus have identified the 21st century soft skills needed for career success — critical thinking, communication, collaboration and creativity/innovation. Ben Marr of Forbes (2019) identified the soft skills required during the FIRe regime. He cited the 21st century skills and added a few more — emotional intelligence (EQ), analytical ability, decision-making, interpersonal skills, and quick adaptiveness.
Dr. Marion Steel of Deakin University emphasized that harnessing soft skills helps keep work “human centric”, as we prepare to work with machines and artificial intelligence. “Leadership” is an important skill of a manager of the future, as the manager needs to effectively work with both people and “thinking machines” that report to him. It is not far-fetched that the rank and file will be supervised by a “robo-boss” that reports to a human manager.
Cross-sectoral digital skills will be needed to allow people to traverse careers, for instance, from information technology to information management, to artificial intelligence.
The immensity of the change that FIRe could bring will need serious preparation. Organizations must plan to upskill and reskill their people. Governments must help the upskilling and reskilling of displaced employees. When the smoke clears, and the workplace is more Covid-free, many employees will be surprised to find that their old jobs no longer exist. They must possess new skills sets to qualify for jobs in the next normal.
There is still no substitute for preparedness, although serendipity and luck can help. But, quite often, I was lucky whenever I was prepared.
Source: https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/01/28/campus-press/catching-fire/833758/